Deloitte Canada's holiday retail outlook shows spending expected to rise by 3%
Deloitte Canada has released the “2025 Holiday Retail Outlook: Wrapped in resilience: a season of smart spending”, which found that holiday spending is expected to rise by 3% this year.
While the increase signals resilience in consumers, Canadians are highly focused on value, with 78% of those surveyed planning to shop for the best deals.
"Consumers are signalling that they intend to spend this holiday season, but with mindfulness. This balanced approach is fostering a resilient and resourceful consumer base, creating an environment where retailers can adapt and innovate," says Shaunna Conway, partner and national retail leader at Deloitte Canada. "This sentiment has a significant impact on consumer behaviour, and Canadian retailers who can deliver meaningful value will be well-positioned to thrive during this holiday season."
The report notes that one in five Canadians plan to begin their shopping in October to maximize value and a quarter of holiday budgets are expected to be spent on Black Friday.
The report also notes that AI adoption continues to reshape the retail landscape, stating that “Canadian shoppers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) for gift inspiration, personalized recommendations, and convenient customer service.”
According to the report, one in four Canadians believe retailers should leverage AI both in store and online to enhance customer service and deliver personalized product information.
Forty-two percent of Canadians plan to begin their holiday shopping online this season.
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"This season is shaped by thoughtful spending and the fast pace of digital change," says Marty Weintraub, partner, technology and transformation, Deloitte Canada. "Retailers shouldn't just be keeping up with technology, they need to be reimagining the shopping experience through technology, while investing in long-term priorities that support this transformation, like cybersecurity. All of this is critical for building consumer trust, loyalty and affinity for retailers that will last well beyond the holiday season."
Seventy-three percent of Canadians surveyed noted a preference for supporting local or Canadian-owned businesses and 56% preferring to buy gifts that support local or small businesses.
Value, brand, and convenience still remain top priorities, with many shoppers willing to look beyond local options to find deals.
