The fall baking trends you need to know about
The dog days of summer aren’t over yet, but soon the weather will cool and Canadians will transition their shopping lists from warm-weather favourites (ice cream and grilling meats) to the ingredients needed for baking homemade treats.
Though baking became a year-round activity thanks to the pandemic-era lockdowns, autumn remains the undisputed period for Canadians to prepare baked goods such as bread, cakes, pies and pastries.
When looking at the average consumption of homemade baked goods from 2019 to 2023, “there’s about a 22% increase in October to December versus the rest of the year,” says Jenny Thompson, director, market strategy and understanding, Ipsos Canada.
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Apples, cranberries, pumpkins and squash ripen in fall, providing a bounty to fill pies, turnovers, muffins and more. Autumn is also when so-called “warm” spices such as cinnamon, nutmeg and cardamom become favoured flavour profiles.
“Baking has always provided Canadians with control—and [during the fall] they’ll be able to find more ingredients to increase the healthfulness of the sweets they bake,” says Shelley Balanko, senior-vice president at Bellevue, Wash.-based research firm The Hartman Group.
Here, we take a closer look at the ingredients and consumer trends that could shape the 2024 fall baking season.
How sweet it is
The brown sugar market has experienced “robust growth” in recent years, driven mostly by growing consumer awareness around health, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, according to market research firm MarkNtel Advisors. Brown sugar gets its colour from being processed with molasses, which is a source of minerals and antioxidants—a “perceived health benefit [that is driving] adoption,” reports MarkNtel. The firm says the global brown sugar market size was valued at US$15.3 billion in 2022 and projects it to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.33% between 2023 and 2028.
Cache Cuisine, a Mississauga, Ont.- based manufacturer and distributor of specialty dry food blends and mixes, has seen sales of its brown sugar—sold in resealable packages—increase over the past few years, says company president Constantine Kentros, who credits perceived nutritional benefits, but also customer discovery that Cache’s brown sugar has a surprisingly easy-to-use texture. Brown sugar has typically been sidestepped in baking because the molasses causes clumping, making it a tough texture for creaming into butter and dissolving into doughs. Cache Cuisine imports its brown sugar from the Colombian company Riopaila Castilla, which uses granulated sucrose from sugar cane and a process that preserves the natural molasses to create a “free flowing” brown sugar. “Our brown sugar has no added molasses and so [it] doesn’t get those rock-hard clumps,” says Kentros.
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The use of natural sweeteners such as maple syrup, honey, apple sauce and coconut sugar are also on the rise. Coconut sugar, which comes from the sap of a coconut palm tree, “has a darker brown sugar-like flavour, but without the usual hint of bitterness,” says Kirk Borchardt, senior R&D chef at Ardent Mills, a flour milling and ingredient company that supplies both the foodservice sector and grocery retailers. Seeing an uptick in interest from home bakers, Ardent Mills has been developing recipes using coconut sugar and sharing them on its website.
Store brands are getting in on sugar alternatives, too. Farm Boy offers two products made using erythritol—a natural occurring sugar alcohol used as a low-calorie sweetener with no aftertaste—Farm Boy Organic Monk Fruit Sweetener with Erythritol and Farm Boy Erythritol Natural Sweetener. “They have all been rising in popularity,” says Matt Dill, director of category management, fresh at Farm Boy. “Consumers are increasingly seeking out options that align with their lifestyle without compromising on taste.”
One of McCormick Canada’s most-visited webpages is for its Club House brand featuring a sugar to honey conversion chart. “Honey is a popular ingredient in baking and a natural alternative to processed sugars,” says Giovanna DiLegge, North America vice-president of marketing, McCormick & Company, makers of the Billy Bee Honey brand. “We also have a dedicated page on baking with honey to help consumers make choices that reflect their dietary needs.” (In September, Club House is launching Gingerbread Spice Finishing Sugar and Salted Caramel Finishing Sugar as limited editions.)
Flour power
Research from Ardent Mills conducted in 2023 found 75% of Canadian consumers were eating for health benefits—whether real or perceived—at least some of the time. No surprise, then, that Canadians are looking to reduce their intake of white and all-purpose flours for alternatives made from grains, nuts, seeds and other non-wheat, gluten-free sources. Farm Boy has a private-label coconut flour and almond flour and Ardent Mills has its Gluten-Free All Purpose Flour Blend, made from organic quinoa flour. Borchardt says many Canadians are reducing their gluten intake for general health. “The market isn’t just those with a gluten allergy,” he says. “Consumers are also discovering they love baking with alternatives.” In October, Ardent Mills is launching a chickpea flour. “We roast the chickpeas, which takes away some of that beany taste so the flour can play in the dessert space, while maintaining the chickpeas’ high protein and fibre content,” says Borchardt.
Short cuts
To succeed, ingredients in baking need to be just right. “Baking is more of a science than an art,” says The Hartman Group’s Balanko. “Some consumers are willing to make tradeoffs in control with mixes to help them succeed.” These “short-cut bakers,” are more likely to be gen Zs than millennials or boomers. Longo’s is capitalizing on this trend with take-and-bake private-label products. “Our Bake Your Own line gains popularity during fall,” says Jackie Di Benedetto, the grocer’s category manager, bakery. The line includes bake your own Cinnamon Brioche and Pastel de Nata (Portugese custard tarts).
This article was first published in Canadian Grocer’s August issue.
