Canada needs an ‘axe the tax’ election—but not for the reasons you think
For several years, the Conservative slogan “axe the tax” has resonated with Canadians, driven by the belief that the carbon tax has exacerbated the cost of living. When it comes to food, however, the reality is far more nuanced. Canada has been sleepwalking through this policy issue for years, leaving the public narrative to carbon-tax-supporting academics and politicians who reassure Canadians that everything will improve as the economy decarbonizes.
The truth is, Canada’s economy is in trouble, and there is scant evidence from Ottawa that the carbon tax is effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Even Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault has admitted that the federal government is not actively measuring the policy’s effectiveness.
On April 1, 2025, Canada’s federal carbon tax is set to increase to $95 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, up from $80 in 2024—already more than halfway to the $170 per tonne target for 2030. Yet a recent study, Implications of Carbon Pricing on Food Affordability and the Agri-Food Sector in Canada: A Scoping Review, published in Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, highlights a glaring oversight: Ottawa failed to assess how this policy would impact food security before its implementation.
Now, academics with ties to the government are scrambling to convince Canadians that the carbon tax has no impact on food prices—despite previously acknowledging it would. The growing skepticism among Canadians is justified.
READ: The carbon tax could impact Canada's food affordability
Research involving scholars worldwide, including 13 peer-reviewed studies, paints a troubling picture of Canada’s approach to carbon pricing. It reveals that the policy’s impact on food security, competitiveness, and affordability has been underestimated. While retail food prices cannot be directly correlated with carbon pricing due to numerous influencing factors, wholesale food prices in Canada have surged relative to other countries. This suggests that the competitiveness of Canada’s agri-food sector has been negatively affected, partly due to the carbon tax. The long-term implications for food security and affordability are significant.
The arguments from prominent economists, which downplay the policy’s impacts, are increasingly out of touch with the realities of Canada’s agri-food sector.
The “axe the tax” campaign has gained traction not because of overwhelming empirical evidence but because it has filled a glaring information void. Since the carbon tax’s implementation, most studies and reports have been government-funded, weaponizing science to reinforce the narrative that the tax is both cost-effective and beneficial. Claims that most Canadians receive rebates exceeding their costs defy logic, given the administrative overhead inherent in any public program.
READ: Debating the path to carbon pricing
Moreover, Canadians who genuinely want a greener, more sustainable economy are beginning to realize that the current path is ineffective. As the economic gap between Canada and the United States reaches historic levels, alternative solutions—such as cap-and-trade systems or the adoption of green technologies—warrant serious consideration.
It’s time Canadians are invited into a transparent, evidence-based debate on the carbon tax. For years, the public has been subjected to one-sided narratives. The growing support for “axe the tax” reflects a collective frustration with the lack of meaningful dialogue and policy scrutiny.
While food security, competitiveness, and affordability are distinct, they are deeply interconnected. Misguided policies like the carbon tax risk undermining Canada’s food security over time. A comprehensive, honest assessment of this policy’s broader impacts is overdue.
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