Canada’s Agri-Food paradox: Good ingredients, weak recipe
October 16, is World Food Day. Canada’s climb from 11th to 7th place in the Global Agri-Food Most Influential Nations Ranking 2025 is encouraging. It confirms what many in the sector already know — Canada is a trusted supplier with a sophisticated food economy. Yet the celebration should be measured. Beneath the progress lies a pattern of missed opportunities: an innovation system that rarely scales, a domestic market dominated by a few players, and policies that leave too many Canadians behind.
The report — produced by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab in partnership with MNP — shows a familiar paradox. Canada excels in generating ideas but falters in turning them into commercial success. Over 320 agri-food tech start-ups have raised more than US $3 billion, but since 2023, private R&D investment has fallen by 37%. That drop signals risk. Canadian innovators continue to fall into the “valley of death” between proof-of-concept and commercialization. In the U.S., venture capital bridges that gap; in Europe, programs like Horizon Europe sustain momentum. In Canada, fragmented programs and inconsistent policy leave entrepreneurs largely on their own. Without a stronger public-private commitment to commercialization, our best ideas will continue to succeed — just not here.
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On paper, fewer than 3% of Canadians cannot afford a nutritious diet. In reality, nearly one in five faces food insecurity. Inflation, weak supply chains, and uneven local infrastructure are eroding access to affordable food, particularly in northern and remote communities. Trust has slipped too. Only 47% of Canadians now express confidence in the agriculture and food sector — a striking decline that mirrors growing frustration with price transparency and retail concentration. A country exporting tens of billions in food products shouldn’t struggle to maintain trust in its own food system.
Canada’s food retail sector remains one of the most concentrated in the G20. Four grocery chains now control 72% of the market, up from 65% last year. Such dominance squeezes suppliers, discourages competition, and limits consumer choice. The proposed Grocery Code of Conduct is a start, but it will only matter if participation is mandatory and enforcement real. Meanwhile, the sector remains digitally underdeveloped: just 2.5% of grocery sales occur online, compared to over 25% in South Korea. In an era when digital commerce enhances transparency and efficiency, treating e-commerce as optional is no longer sustainable.
Globally, Canada performs far better. Ranked second in trade and geopolitics, it maintains a US $60 billion agri-food trade surplus and access to 1.27 billion consumers. But internally, interprovincial trade barriers continue to constrain competitiveness. Producers who can sell seamlessly to Europe or Asia still face hurdles moving food across provincial borders. To rise further, Canada must expand its trade diversification strategy. Brazil and Australia already reach over four billion consumers through broader agreements. Canada’s future influence will depend on entering new markets — especially in Asia and Africa — while protecting current ones.
Canada’s environmental credentials — biodiversity, agri-environmental data, and climate monitoring — are world-class. But measurement alone doesn’t create leadership. To compete with the EU or Germany, Canada must shift from reporting to rewarding: supporting farmers who adopt climate-smart practices, and scaling innovations that reduce waste and emissions. As global buyers demand traceability and low-carbon sourcing, sustainability is fast becoming a trade advantage, not a slogan.
Canada has the assets: land, research depth, stable institutions, and entrepreneurial talent. What it lacks is alignment. Too often, policy, research, and industry work in silos. The next step is coherence — turning capability into competitiveness and influence into leadership. If Canada wants to lead the next chapter of the global food economy, it must stop mistaking progress for success. Moving from seventh place into the top tier will take courage, coordination, and the recognition that food is not just an industry. It is an instrument of national strength.
