Early planning, high value: Canada’s 2026 holiday outlook

Rather than waiting until December to fill their holiday baskets, shoppers are planning, watching prices closely, using loyalty rewards and making more intentional buying decisions. 

According to Caddle’s September 2026 Holiday Grocery study, Canadian shoppers are entering the season with a clear focus on value, but they aren’t simply cutting back. In fact, 30% expect to spend more on holiday groceries this year, compared with 18% who expect to spend less. Another 43% expect their spending to remain the same. (The remaining 9% weren’t sure.) 

What’s the takeaway for grocers? Shoppers still intend to fill their baskets, but they are actively looking for ways to get more for their money. 

READ: Budgets are down and consumer focus on value is up this holiday season, survey finds

Timing will be critical. More than half of Canadian shoppers (55%) expect to begin buying for the holidays three or more weeks before Christmas, with only 22% expecting to leave most of their shopping until the final week.   

For retailers, that means the holiday marketing season starts well before December. A plan that schedules promotions, merchandising, loyalty offers and seasonal messaging to run only around the traditional shopping peak may sacrifice the best opportunity to influence a significant portion of the planning and purchasing journey. 

Value continues to drive holiday grocery shopping, with 47% of shoppers citing promotions/sales and 42% citing lowest prices as key factors in their purchase decisions. Other common considerations include familiar family brands (20%), healthier options (14%) and one-stop-shop convenience (13%). 

Despite their cost consciousness, shoppers won’t necessarily trade down to minimize their grocery bill. Nearly nine in 10 shoppers (88%) plan to adjust holiday shopping habits to save money. Top saving tactics include buying earlier when a good price is available (39%), stocking up on promotions (38%) and redeeming loyalty points (37%). One-quarter of shoppers expect to compare prices across more stores, 18% anticipate switching to lower-priced brands, 16% plan to reduce snack and treat purchases and 14% plan to buy more private-label products. 

The retailer that provides the right value at the right moment has an opportunity to capture spending that might otherwise move elsewhere. 

Loyalty programs could be particularly important. Nearly four in 10 shoppers (37%) expect to use points or rewards to help manage holiday grocery costs. This finding places loyalty programs alongside promotions as one of the most important value-management tools. 

For retailers, this generates an opportunity to deliver value without relying exclusively on straight price reductions. Well-timed point offers, targeted rewards and bundled promotions can give shoppers a tangible financial benefit while potentially protecting margin more effectively than across-the-board discounts.

At the same time, price is not the only story shaping the holiday basket. Perhaps unsurprisingly, patriotism is another influential factor. 

READ: A look at the trends filling this year’s holiday grocery basket

Overall, buying Canadian-made products is a material purchase driver for 63% of holiday shoppers, with 30% saying it’s extremely important to them and 33% saying it’s very important. 

The strength of Buy Canadian sentiment varies regionally, but not by much. British Columbians are mostly likely (67%) to say that buying Canadian-made products are extremely or very important to them, while Quebecers are least likely, at 57%.

The opportunity is pronounced among older shoppers. Fully 73% of boomers rate buying Canadian extremely or very important when shopping. Moreover, buying Canadian is a top-three priority for 48% of boomers, compared with just 22% of generation Z. 

For retailers, these differences reinforce the importance of treating holiday shoppers as distinct consumer groups. The most effective strategy may combine broad value messaging with targeted appeals based on shopper priorities, timing and loyalty behaviour. 

The broader takeaway for grocery retailers and brands is clear: The holiday basket may still be big, but in 2026, winning it will require retailers to make every dollar feel well spent. 

A longer version of this article was first published in Canadian Grocer’s November 2026 issue.