Researchers predict prices for lunchbox staples to rise by December
Parents may have seen lower prices across common school-lunch foods in August, but a new study predicts uneven relief heading into winter.
Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, in partnership with GroceryPulse.ca, released a report Tuesday (Aug. 25) examining back-to-school food prices.
Researchers tracked the cost of a 12-item “lunchbox basket” containing orange juice, greek yogurt, bananas, carrots, whole-wheat bread, apples, peanut butter, chicken nuggets, cheddar cheese, canned tuna, bagels and bottled water.
From July to August, the total cost of the basket fell 2.8% to $54.04.
Orange juice was the only item to increase in price (up 6.3%). Lower prices for bagels, bottled water, tuna, cheddar cheese, chicken nuggets and peanut butter offset the increase.
READ: Grocery inflation decelerates in July as fresh fruit prices rise 6.1%
The cost of the lunchbox basket varied by location, ranging from $52.05 in Quebec City to $56.48 in St. John's.
The broader 45-item food basket showed a similar gap. That basket declined 2.8% month-over-month, falling to $262.07 in August.
St. John’s and Moncton were at or near the top of the price range for both baskets.
Across all cities, 30 of the 45 food items declined, nine were unchanged and six increased. Seven of the eight food categories moved lower; meat and fish was the exception, led by higher salmon and chicken-breast prices.
However, researchers advised against treating the snapshot as a durable trend, noting that seasonal discounting contributed to the decline in prices.
Looking ahead, the study examined the cost of 24 lunchbox items, combining 18 August GroceryPulse prices with six additional Statistics Canada staples to create a “reference basket.”
The cost of the basket–containing milk, eggs, cheddar, greek yogurt, chicken breast, tuna, white bread, whole-wheat bread and bagels—is expected to move from $90.27 in August to $89.20 in October, then rise to $96 in December.
