Think chicken prices are high now? Just wait until this summer
Canadians are paying record prices for chicken while importing massive quantities of foreign poultry, mostly from the United States. If that sounds contradictory, it’s because it is.
According to the latest Canadian Association of Regulated Importers (CARI) figures released May 23, Canada has already imported more than 52.2 million kilograms of chicken so far this year under WTO, CUSMA and CPTPP commitments combined. Nearly 23.8 million kilograms came directly from the United States under CUSMA alone.
And yet, wholesale chicken prices in Canada continue to surge.
Over the past year, Canada imported roughly 200 to 215 million kilograms of chicken overall, enough for approximately 1.3 to 1.4 billion meals. About 60% came from the United States. Most Canadians likely have no idea how often they may already be consuming imported chicken in nuggets, deli meats, frozen meals, restaurant sandwiches, soups, and prepared foods.
Under supply management, Canadians were promised something very different: stable supply, mostly domestic production, and predictable prices. Instead, Canada now faces one of the tightest chicken markets in decades.
Industry sources indicate Canada’s chicken sector has underproduced relative to allocation targets in 12 of the last 14 production periods dating back to March 2024—something many insiders say has never happened in the modern history of supply management. Meanwhile, retailers increasingly rely on chicken to offset high beef prices, intensifying demand pressures throughout the system.
The contrast with the United States is striking. American wholesale boneless skinless chicken breast prices recently fell to roughly US$1 per pound. In Canada, comparable wholesale prices have reportedly climbed near $13/kg. The price spread has become so extreme that importers are now bringing chicken into Canada over the 249% tariff wall and still making money doing so. That should alarm policymakers.
Historically, importing over the tariff wall only occurred during extraordinary shortages. The fact that it is happening again, barely a year after the same phenomenon emerged in 2025, suggests something deeper is wrong structurally.
The most revealing part of the current market is not the official quota imports themselves, but the explosion in supplementary permits. CARI data shows “Chicken to Compete” permits are up more than 876% year-to-date. These permits are intended to serve as a pressure valve when domestic supply cannot adequately meet market demand. In other words, the system itself is signaling distress.
Even more revealing is where the pain is being felt. Farmers are not necessarily the biggest losers. Large integrated processors continue to perform relatively well financially, while many independent processors, restaurants, and smaller operators struggle to absorb rapidly escalating input costs. Some are reportedly considering exiting the business altogether because they lack sufficient access to product.
Consumers are next. Retail prices typically lag wholesale spikes by four to eight weeks. What Canadians see at grocery stores today largely reflects March and April pricing conditions. The wholesale increases occurring now are likely to push retail prices even higher through the summer barbecue season.
Dark meat markets illustrate how abnormal conditions have become. Canada is now importing approximately 9 million kilograms of U.S. chicken leg quarters to support domestic retail demand—despite historically exporting dark meat at discounted prices. That is not a market nuance. That is a warning sign.
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What makes the situation more frustrating is that the policy tools to address this problem already exist. Canada has mechanisms allowing supplemental imports during shortage-driven pricing events. Competition Bureau Canada, the Farm Products Council of Canada, and Global Affairs Canada all possess some authority to intervene or facilitate temporary relief measures.
Yet there appears to be little political appetite to acknowledge publicly that a supply shortage exists. Meanwhile, consumers continue paying more.
None of this is an argument against Canadian poultry farmers. Many are highly efficient producers operating within a framework designed by policymakers decades ago. But the framework itself increasingly appears incapable of adapting quickly to population growth, shifting protein demand, international trade realities, and changing consumer purchasing behaviour.
Chicken has become Canada’s affordability protein. As beef prices remain elevated, middle-class consumers naturally trade down toward poultry. But when the system cannot respond flexibly enough to rising demand, shortages emerge, imports surge, and prices escalate simultaneously. That is precisely what Canadians are witnessing today.
If Canada intends to maintain supply management, then policymakers and industry leaders must be willing to confront uncomfortable realities honestly and transparently. Denial is not a production strategy.
Otherwise, Canada risks drifting toward the worst possible outcome: some of the highest chicken prices in the developed world combined with growing dependence on foreign supply. That is not food sovereignty. That is policy failure.
