When the grocery cart becomes a ballot box
While President Trump performs his periodic theatrics and Prime Minister Carney manages bilateral tensions — whether over the Gordie Howe Bridge or other irritants — Canadian consumers are quietly expressing their own foreign policy through the checkout line. For the first time in years, we are observing a boycott that is measurable, not merely rhetorical.
Multiple industry sources relying on scanner data from major grocers suggest that volumes of U.S.-sourced products have declined by double digits since last March. That is not statistical noise; it represents a material demand shock within specific categories.
What makes this episode different is the intensity and persistence of the political catalyst. Geopolitics is no longer an abstract concept discussed in policy circles. It is televised daily. Trade threats, tariff rhetoric, diplomatic friction and public confrontation are broadcast into Canadian living rooms in real time. For many households, the grocery store has become one of the few places where they feel they can register disapproval of the Trump administration’s posture toward Canada. Consumer substitution is being reinforced not by a single event, but by a continuous media loop reminding Canadians of why they are frustrated.
Survey evidence reflects this reality. More than half of Canadian consumers report that they continue to avoid American products in their day-to-day purchases, well beyond the initial political trigger. When consumer substitution persists for months rather than weeks, we are no longer dealing with a symbolic protest. We are observing a behavioural adjustment rooted in identity, economic sovereignty, and policy disagreement. Policymakers and businesses should not dismiss this as episodic nationalism. When purchasing decisions intersect with sustained political visibility, shifts can endure.
Skepticism toward survey data is healthy. But in this case, retail sales appear to corroborate the attitudinal data. Canada has seen this before.
The most instructive precedent remains the so-called “ketchup wars.” When Heinz closed its Leamington, Ontario plant in 2013, it created an economic vacuum that French's strategically filled by sourcing Canadian-grown tomatoes and appealing directly to consumer nationalism. When Loblaw Companies Limited initially limited French’s distribution, shoppers responded forcefully. Social media campaigns framed the issue as support for Canadian farmers versus a multinational that had exited the country. Retail strategy adjusted accordingly.
The outcome was instructive. Consumer pressure reshaped the ketchup category and ultimately influenced Kraft Heinz to restore domestic ketchup production a few years ago at its Mont-Royal facility in Montreal. What began as a delisting dispute evolved into a case study in how coordinated consumer behaviour can alter corporate supply-chain decisions.
The question now is whether today’s measurable pushback against American products will produce similar structural adjustments. Canadian grocery shelves have become increasingly internationalized over the past two decades, even as food inflation remains elevated. Substitution away from U.S. products does not automatically lower prices. In fact, replacing efficient large-scale suppliers with smaller domestic producers can increase unit costs if scale is insufficient.
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If this moment is to generate lasting economic benefit, the focus must shift from symbolic substitution to structural reform. Canada’s food sector is populated by too many subscale firms constrained by fragmented provincial markets. Eliminating interprovincial trade barriers would allow domestic companies to scale production, reduce per-unit costs, and compete more effectively — not just against U.S. imports, but globally.
Consumer activism can influence markets. The ketchup episode proved that. But boycotts alone do not build competitiveness.
If Canadians are voting with their dollars, policymakers should respond by making it easier for Canadian firms to grow.
Let’s not waste a measurable shift in consumer behaviour.
